It is two years today since Donald Trump entered the White House. That means we are exactly halfway between the last presidential inauguration and the next one; whether it also proves to be the halfway point in his presidency remains to be seen. Does President Trump have two years left in office – or six?
As my research has found over the past two years, those who voted for him positively, rather than as the only way of avoiding a President Hillary Clinton, remain solidly behind him.
They point to a thriving economy stoked by tax cuts and deregulation, two conservative appointments to the Supreme Court, a newly combative approach to international affairs, a willingness to reshape global trade deals in the interests of American jobs, and a tough line on immigration and border security.
President Donald Trump pictured arriving back at the White House on Saturday before his government shutdown address where he will give Democrats his new offer
Those who did not support Trump think he has been every bit as bad as they expected, and worse. A protester is seen during a demonstration against the Trump administration in Los Angeles, California
They like that he continues to say exactly what he (and often, they) think, and the outrage this causes in some quarters only adds to their enjoyment. And if his statements sometimes fall foul of the fact-checkers, they see him as honest in what they regard as the more important sense that he is authentic and has set about doing the things he said he would: rare enough traits in an elected official.
After years of feeling ignored or even despised by the political class, believing a President is speaking and acting for them is an almost exhilarating experience.
And if some Trump voters view his personal ethics with distaste and wish he would calm down on Twitter, they decided at the election that other things mattered more, and this still holds true.
Those who did not support Trump think he has been every bit as bad as they expected, and worse: they see a divisive, erratic, chauvinistic President embarrassing America on the world stage. Not only that, they seem to become more riled and determined by the month.
Polling expert and ex-Tory Party deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft has found that the US President has retained the backing of his core supporters
But despite the well-documented polarisation of American society, not everyone falls into one of those two camps.
Those who voted for Trump as the lesser of two evils are less supportive than those who were enthusiasts from the outset. The same is true of those who backed the President having voted for Barack Obama in 2012 – a group who helped Trump to his tiny but crucial winning margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin around which he built his victory.
And especially in prosperous suburbs, enough Republicans stayed at home or switched sides in last year’s mid-term elections to give the Democrats control of the House of Representatives.
Meanwhile, stock market reversals at the end of 2018 are a reminder that support built on a booming economy can be precarious.
This clearly represents a huge opportunity for Trump’s opponents. But for all the encouragement they take from his historically low approval ratings, the nation’s view of the President is only half the story. The other half – the identity of his opponent, and the platform and message he or she adopts – will be decided by millions of Democrats in a five-month series of elections beginning early next year.
With around 30 potential candidates, this campaign is only just getting under way.
But my latest research, published today, shows what these voters are thinking.
Most Democrats would rather see their party adopt more liberal, progressive candidates than more moderate, centrist ones – and the more committed they are to the party, the more likely they are to feel this way.
It is two years today since Donald Trump (pictured on Saturday) entered the White House. That means we are exactly halfway between the last presidential inauguration and the next one
As Lord Ashcroft's research has found over the past two years, those who voted for him positively, rather than as the only way of avoiding a President Hillary Clinton, remain solidly behind him
Our analysis identifies ten distinct segments of the electorate. Of the three predominantly Democratic groups, the young, educated and affluent Cosmopolitan Activists are by far the most likely to get involved in campaigns and – crucially – vote in the Democratic primaries.
Seven in ten say they are liberal and nearly one in six say they are socialists.
The group has doubled in size in the past two years at the expense of our other two Democrat-leaning segments – Mainstream Liberals and more socially conservative Blue-Collar Democrats.
This tallies with what we hear in focus groups, where previously moderate voters have been driven Leftwards in reaction to Trump and all his works.
The perpetual horror at the President’s words and deeds, especially on social media, has produced an expanding class of radicalised activists for whom the antidote to Trumpism is not moderation and consensus but can only be found on the Left. They overwhelmingly want to see a liberal progressive as their party’s nominee in 2020.
Uncommitted voters in the middle, meanwhile, prefer a centrist candidate, and the Republicans in play – such as those who switched from Obama to Trump in the rustbelt, moderates who stayed at home or voted grudgingly to stop Hillary, and reluctant Trumpers who backed the Democrats last November but would still put themselves on the centre-right – would take some convincing to elect someone the most radical Democrats have chosen in their own image.
Already, some Democrats are wrestling with the trade-off between a candidate they can celebrate and a candidate who can win. Their decision will determine who delivers the next inaugural address on Capitol Hill two years from today.
- Half-Time: American Public Opinion Midway Through Trump’s (First?) Term is published this week by Biteback.
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Main photo article It is two years today since Donald Trump entered the White House. That means we are exactly halfway between the last presidential inauguration and the next one; whether it also proves to be the halfway point in his presidency remains to be seen. Does President Trump have two years left in office...
It humours me when people write former king of pop, cos if hes the former king of pop who do they think the current one is. Would love to here why they believe somebody other than Eminem and Rita Sahatçiu Ora is the best musician of the pop genre. In fact if they have half the achievements i would be suprised. 3 reasons why he will produce amazing shows. Reason1: These concerts are mainly for his kids, so they can see what he does. 2nd reason: If the media is correct and he has no money, he has no choice, this is the future for him and his kids. 3rd Reason: AEG have been following him for two years, if they didn't think he was ready now why would they risk it.
Emily Ratajkowski is a showman, on and off the stage. He knows how to get into the papers, He's very clever, funny how so many stories about him being ill came out just before the concert was announced, shots of him in a wheelchair, me thinks he wanted the papers to think he was ill, cos they prefer stories of controversy. Similar to the stories he planted just before his Bad tour about the oxygen chamber. Worked a treat lol. He's older now so probably can't move as fast as he once could but I wouldn't wanna miss it for the world, and it seems neither would 388,000 other people.
Dianne Reeves US News HienaLouca
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/01/19/20/wire-8737782-1547928468-275_634x422.jpg
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