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среда, 12 декабря 2018 г.

«Breaking News» Theresa May vote of no confidence: Who will replace PM if she is toppled?

Senior Tories are jockeying for position to become the next Prime Minister after 48 MPs forced a no confidence vote in Theresa May.


Mrs May needs the support of more than 50% of the 315 Conservative MPs to stay in office.


In reality however, even if she wins, but with a small margin of victory, she may be forced out of Number 10. 


Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, relatively unknown outside of Westminster, was the bookies favourite to win any leadership run-off this morning.


But betting during the day has seen the odds shorten on Boris Johnson, who is now 4-1 favourite with many bookmakers. 





Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab is among the favourites to succeed Theresa May if she loses a vote of confidence


Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab is among the favourites to succeed Theresa May if she loses a vote of confidence






Home Secretary Sajid Javid is among the favourites to succeed Theresa May if she loses a vote of confidence


Home Secretary Sajid Javid is among the favourites to succeed Theresa May if she loses a vote of confidence



Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Home Secretary Sajid Javid are among the favourites to succeed Theresa May if she loses a vote of confidence






Brexiteers Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are also among the leading pack with bookmakers


Brexiteers Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are also among the leading pack with bookmakers






Brexiteers Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are also among the leading pack with bookmakers


Brexiteers Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are also among the leading pack with bookmakers



Brexiteers Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are also among the leading pack with bookmakers


Mr Raab, a prominent Brexiteer in the referendum campaign, was appointed as Brexit Secretary in July but resigned from the role in November, saying he could not support Mrs May's deal.


In his resignation letter to Theresa May on November 15, he wrote: 'I understand why you have chosen to pursue the deal with the EU on the terms proposed, and I respect the different views held in good faith by all of our colleagues.'

Mr Raab, 44, has been the MP for Esher and Walton since he was elected in 2010. The son of a Czech-born Jewish father who came to Britain in 1938, he is married with two children.


Different bookmakers then have different combinations of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid as second, third and fourth favourites. 


 Boris Johnson is the best-known candidate outside of the world of politics, having risen to fame on panel shows like Have I Got News For You before becoming mayor of London.




Andrea Leadsom, who ran in the last leadership race, could also run


Andrea Leadsom, who ran in the last leadership race, could also run






Amber Rudd is also among the chasing pack


Amber Rudd is also among the chasing pack



Andrea Leadsom, who ran in the last leadership race, and Amber Rudd are also among the chasing pack






Penny Mordaunt is also a contender


Penny Mordaunt is also a contender






As is Jacob Rees-Mogg, who spearheaded the challenge


As is Jacob Rees-Mogg, who spearheaded the challenge



Penny Mordaunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg, who spearheaded the challenge, are contenders



Colourful Old Etonian Johnson was one of the key players in the 2017 Leave campaign and resigned from the cabinet following the Chequers summit in July.


He was heavily tipped as a successor to David Cameron but ruled himself out of the 2016 leadership contest after Michael Gove made a last-minute bid for the top job.



Who's in the frame? 



Current average odds on the next Tory leader



  • Dominic Raab 9/2 

  • Sajid Javid 5/1 

  • Boris Johnson 6/1 

  • Michael Gove 6/1 

  • Jeremy Hunt 7/1 

  • David Davis 9/1 

  • Jacob Rees-Mogg 9/1 

  • Amber Rudd 16/1 

  • Penny Mordaunt 16/1 

  • Andrea Leadsom 25/1




In a diary piece for the Spectator, Mr Johnson compared his former 'late night binges of chorizo and cheese' and recent weight loss to Brexit: 'We know that we have to make certain changes if we are to leave the EU.'


Mr Johnson refused to rule out challenging Theresa May for her premiership in at interview at the weekend, saying the British people should not 'underestimate the deep sense of personal responsibility I feel for Brexit''.


Mr Johnson, 54, who was Mayor of London for eight years, recently announced his divorce from his wife Marina Wheeler, a human rights lawyer.


Michael Gove, third favourite at 7-1 with Ladbrokes, appeared to rule himself out of the running in recent days.


With other senior members of the Cabinet reportedly manoeuvring to replace Mrs May if she had lost Tuesday's ultimately postponed Commons Brexit vote, Mr Gove said it was 'extremely unlikely' that he would stand as a future Conservative Party leader.




Veteran MP David Davis could be seen as a 'caretaker' candidate to get Brexit through


Veteran MP David Davis could be seen as a 'caretaker' candidate to get Brexit through






Long-time cabinet member Jeremy Hunt is also in the frame


Long-time cabinet member Jeremy Hunt is also in the frame



Veteran MP David Davis and long-time cabinet member Jeremy Hunt are also in the frame


That apparent reluctance could have something to do with his previous bruising experience in a Tory leadership race.


In June 2016, Mr Gove, who was campaign manager for Boris Johnson's failed drive to succeed David Cameron, withdrew his support on the morning that Mr Johnson was due to declare and threw his own hat in the ring instead.


He came third in the first round of voting, trailing behind ultimate winner Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom.







Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson is a 40/1 outsider



Mr Gove, 51, was born in Edinburgh, studied English at Oxford and was a journalist before becoming an MP. 


Sajid Javid is 8-1 with many bookies. In his interview with the Spectator, Sajid Javid signalled his leadership ambitions by arguing that he wanted the Tories to be the party of social mobility.


On Wednesday he said he was backing Theresa May in the contest but he could still throw his hat in the ring if she loses the first vote.


The odds on Javid taking the top job are currently 8/1, according to Ladbrokes. He didn't stand in the 2016 leadership race but has since emerged as one of the favourites in Westminster to succeed Mrs May.


Javid, 49, who backed Remain in the referendum but has since positioned himself as a firm Leaver, became the first home secretary from an ethnic minority background when he was appointed in April 2018.


The son of a Pakistani bus driver from Rochdale, he was managing director at Deutsche Bank before becoming an MP in 2010. He is married with four children.



Theresa May today vowed to fight the confidence challenge with everything she has got


Theresa May today vowed to fight the confidence challenge with everything she has got



Theresa May today vowed to fight the confidence challenge with everything she has got




How can Theresa May be ousted as Tory leader?



A Tory leadership contest can be called in one of two ways - if the leader resigns or if MPs force and win a vote of no confidence in them.


It is not the same as a vote of confidence in the government - which happens on the floor of the Commons and involves all MPs. 


Calling votes of no confidence is the responsibility of the chairman of the 1922 Committee, which includes all backbench Conservative MPs.


Chairman Graham Brady is obliged to call a vote if 15 per cent of Tory MPs write to him calling for one - currently 48 MPs. 


The process is secret and only Sir Graham knows how many letters he has received.


Once triggered, the ballot can be organised very quickly.


The no-confidence vote is purely on whether the leader should stay in place or not, rather than a contest.


Crucially, if the incumbent receives more votes in support than opposed they cannot be challenged for 12 months.


The procedure was last used in 2003 when Iain Duncan Smith was removed as Tory leader.


If the leader is ousted, they typically remain as Prime Minister until a successor is appointed and ready to be confirmed by the Queen.


Any MP - apart from the ousted leader - is eligible to stand in the subsequent contest.


Conservative MPs hold a series of ballots to whittle the list of contenders down to two, with the lowest placed candidate dropping out in each round.


The final two candidates are then offered to the Tory membership at large for an election. 


Some activists have called for changes so it is easier for contenders to reach the final stage.


They have suggested that the membership should get to choose between any candidates who get support from at least 20 other MPs.




Outside of the top four, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is at 7/1 with some bookmakers.


He rushed to back the PM today, tweeting: 'I am backing Theresa May tonight. Being PM most difficult job imaginable right now and the last thing the country needs is a damaging and long leadership contest.'


Despite his support however, the 51-year-old MP for South West Surrey would be seen as a likely candidate if a leadership election were held.


Mr Hunt has been a cabinet member since 2010, holding the positions of Secretary for Culture, Media and Sport, Health Secretary and, since Boris Johnson's resignation, Foreign Secretary. 


Veteran Tory David Davis could also throw his hat into the ring of any leadership run-off.


He is the favoured choice of many hard Brexiteers and seen as a safer pair of hands than Mr Johnson. 


He could also be promoted a caretaker to see through Brexit before standing down.


Unlikely to be the choice of Remain supporters inside the Tory Party - and has been rejected by the Tory membership before, in the 2005 race against David Cameron.


Former Home Secretary Amber Rudd has also been suggested by some in the party.


A Remainer, she is popular among Conservative MPs as the voice of Cameron-style Toryism.


Ms Rudd is still seen as a contender despite resigning amid the Windrush scandal - and she was boosted further by her return to Cabinet as Work and Pensions Secretary on Friday night. 


She is badly hampered by having a tiny majority in her Hastings constituency and would not be able to unite the Tory party in a sudden contest over the Brexit negotiation. 


A possible dark horse in the contest, is Penny Mordaunt, who is not well known to the public but is seen as a contender in Westminster. 


She is said to harbour deep concerns about Mrs May's Brexit deal, but has stopped short of resigning from Cabinet. 


Jacob Rees-Mogg is another possibility as a Corbyn-style 'outsider' candidate.


The chairman of the European Research Group of Eurosceptic Tory backbenchers, Mr Rees-Mogg has been one of Mrs May's fiercest critics within her own party.


In a joint statement with his ERG deputy today, he said: 'Theresa May's plan would bring down the Government if carried forward. But our party will rightly not tolerate it.


'Conservatives must now answer whether they wish to draw ever closer to an election under Mrs May's leadership. In the national interest, she must go.'



What could happen next for Theresa May as she faces no confidence vote



Theresa May is battling for her political survival today as Tory rebels have triggered  a vote of confidence in her premiership. 


If she wins, she will stay on as Tory leader and Prime Minister to finish the Brexit talks and try to get a deal over the line.


And if she loses, she would have to stay on in Number Ten for weeks as a 'zombie' Prime Minister for some weeks until her warring party pick a fresh leader.


Why is Theresa May facing a confidence vote?


The contest has been triggered because at least 48 Tory MPs have sent letters of no confidence into Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee - the body which represents Tory MPs.


Sir Graham is obliged to call a vote if 15 per cent of Tory MPs write to him calling for one - currently 48 MPs. 


How will today's vote take place?  


The confidence vote will be held between 6pm and 8pm tonight. Tory MPs vote by casting their secret ballots in a box which will be placed in a room in Parliament, and they can only vote for these two hours. 


How many MPs does Theresa May need to win?


There are 315 Tory MPs who are eligible to vote, and the PM needs a simple majority to stay on as leader - meaning 158 is the magic number. 


What happens if Theresa May wins? 


If Theresa May wins today then she cannot face a fresh challenge for another 12 months - meaning that she can stay on and finish Brexit.


Mrs May has vowed to stay on as leader if she win's tonight's vote by just one, but her critics on the Tory backbenches have warned that if 80 or more MPs vote against her, her position as PM will be untenable.


What happens if Theresa May loses? 


If Theresa May loses she must resign as Conservative party leader and is barred in standing for the leadership contest.


But she will have to stay on as Prime Minister while warring Tory MPs decide who her successor will be - leaving her a 'Zombie' leader.


She faces the humiliating prospect of being defeated tonight but having to travel to Brussels tomorrow for a crunch EU summit where Brexit is on the agenda. 


Or she could quit immediately and hand over to a caretaker leader - with her de facto deputy David Lidington tipped to be the man to fulfill this role. 


How does the Tory leadership contest work? 


Any MP - apart from the ousted leader - is eligible to stand in the subsequent contest.


Conservative MPs hold a series of ballots to whittle the list of contenders down to two, with the lowest placed candidate dropping out in each round.


The final two candidates are then offered to the Tory membership at large for an election. 


It is widely believed that the Brexiteer candidate will be the winner if it goes to a vote of the overwhelmingly Eurosceptic membership.



Link hienalouca.com

https://hienalouca.com/2018/12/12/theresa-may-vote-of-no-confidence-who-will-replace-pm-if-she-is-toppled/
Main photo article Senior Tories are jockeying for position to become the next Prime Minister after 48 MPs forced a no confidence vote in Theresa May.
Mrs May needs the support of more than 50% of the 315 Conservative MPs to stay in office.
In reality however, even if she wins, but with a small margin of victory,...


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Emily Ratajkowski is a showman, on and off the stage. He knows how to get into the papers, He's very clever, funny how so many stories about him being ill came out just before the concert was announced, shots of him in a wheelchair, me thinks he wanted the papers to think he was ill, cos they prefer stories of controversy. Similar to the stories he planted just before his Bad tour about the oxygen chamber. Worked a treat lol. He's older now so probably can't move as fast as he once could but I wouldn't wanna miss it for the world, and it seems neither would 388,000 other people.

Dianne Reeves Online news HienaLouca





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