Theresa May heads to Brussels tomorrow afternoon for a crunch summit on the fate of Brexit - and almost nothing is certain.
She is to ask for a three month delay before one final push to get her deal agreed by MPs in a third showdown next week. Her plea comes after a major Cabinet row yesterday.
Donald Tusk said today a short extension is possible - but only if MPs vote for the deal next week. It is not even clear if the Speaker will allow a third vote.
Currently the law says Britain will leave the European Union with or without a deal in nine days time - at 11pm next Friday night.
But it is also true there are a majority of MPs against a No Deal Brexit and probably still true there is a majority of MPs against Mrs May's deal.
As Brexit finally enters the end game, these are the answers to some of the pressing questions:
Theresa May heads to Brussels tomorrow afternoon for a crunch summit on the fate of Brexit - and almost nothing is certain
What happened today?
Theresa May has finally set out her terms for delaying Brexit after accepting it cannot happen on time. She has told EU Council President Donald Tusk she wants three months to have another go at getting her deal through.
The Prime Minister has been criticised for appearing to dump the idea of a long extension - despite it being in her own plan last week and a short extension being damned as 'reckless' by her own deputy David Lidington six days ago.
Does May have any support?
There was a major row in Cabinet yesterday about any delay to Brexit. At the time, Mrs May did not express an opinion.
Today she has set out her terms in a letter. Downing Street refused to say if Cabinet were consulted any further before the missive was finalised.
What is May asking for at the summit tomorrow?
The Prime Minister wants the EU Council to rubberstamp the extra three documents she agreed with the EU Commission on the backstop last week.
She hopes this, combined with new promises at home on a role for the Northern Ireland Assembly, will be enough to convince John Bercow to allow a third vote on her deal.
Mrs May will ask the EU to give her a three month extension to deliver the deal with these commitments.
Will she get it?
Very unclear. The EU has repeatedly said several discouraging things in recent days.
First, the bloc only wants a short extension to run until May 23 - the date of European Parliament elections in the UK. It will insist Britain is out of the bloc if it has no MEPs.
Second, it has said there must be a clear reason for delay. This could be time to implement the agreed deal or time for an election or referendum that might set a new path for Brexit.
How is Brexit delayed, if the EU agrees?
To change the law, the Government would have to get a law change through Parliament.
This can be done with a Statutory Instrument - a simple short piece of law - that tweaks the EU Withdrawal Act 2018 to change the current date to something else.
In an emergency, it could likely be got through the Commons and Lords in two days - and conceivably a single day assuming there were votes to win procedural changes.
What happens if Brussels says No?
This unlocks a number of possible scenarios.
First, Mrs May could come home and try and get her deal agreed by MPs anyway.
Second, she could accept her deal is dead and invite MPs to choose a different course.
Third, the Prime Minister could say Britain now has no choice but to leave the EU with no deal.
Mrs May will ask for a three month delay before one final push to get her deal agreed by MPs in a third showdown next week. Her plea comes after a major Cabinet row yesterday (pictured are Brexiteer MPs walking out of No 10 today)
Will there be a second EU summit if there are no conclusions tomorrow?
Possibly. If the EU sends Mrs May home to come up with a concrete plan, they could agree to an emergency second summit next week.
Organised EU summits is difficult - it requires 28 national leaders to turn up - but the EU is eager for Britain to leave with a deal.
It means if Mrs May can get her deal through, leaders might reconvene to green light a short delay at the 11th hour. If she gets a Commons vote on an alternative plan, such as a referendum, she could ask them to meet again for a longer delay.
Will there be a third meaningful vote and if so when?
It is unclear. Mrs May has told the EU she wants a third vote 'as soon as possible' if they agree to give her a delay.
If the delay is agreed tomorrow, Mrs May could put back the date of Brexit before having the third vote on her deal. In practice, that appears to make the deadline around April 11 - the last point at which the Government can order EU Parliament elections.
If a delay is made subject to approval of the deal, Mrs May will have to try again next week - probably on Tuesday night at the latest.
What happens if the deal is defeated again?
This also unlocks a number of possible consequences.
First, given the proximity of exit day a third defeat next week would dramatically raise the risk of a No Deal Brexit on Friday. This could easily trigger a vote of no confidence in the Government - forcing pro-EU Tories to choose between voting with Jeremy Corbyn or accepting No Deal.
Second, Mrs May has said if MPs continue rejecting the deal they will have to choose an alternative path. The Government would probably hold an indicative vote on the various options and hope for a longer delay at the last minute.
Third, Mrs May could simply resign and hand the mess over to someone else in acknowledgement her flagship policy has fallen to historic failure.
Fourth, if she already has a delay agreed by Brussels she could keep pressing on in the hope something comes up.
Will MPs vote on other options?
Probably. Because of the second defeat for the deal, procedure dictates there must be a debate on the next steps for Brexit, with the possibility of amending a Government motion.
This could be used as a proxy for an indicative vote or could be used by MPs to seize the timetable and Commons procedure. They would use it to pit all the possible ideas against each other.
It appears likely the initial amendable motion will be debated and voted on Monday night.
Brussels leaders including Jean-Claude Junker and Donald Tusk (pictured today in Brussels) is already pushing back on the idea - meaning in 24 hours things could be even less certain than
Will May resign?
She appeared to hint she would today in preference to delaying Brexit beyond June 30. Downing Street refused to deny this was the clear implication of her remarks.
What happens to Brexit if May goes or the Government collapses?
It is hard to know. Without changing the law, No Deal happens next Friday.
But we also know there is a majority of MPs against a No Deal Brexit. It is possible there are enough Tory MPs prepared to remove the Government to stop No Deal by installing a Corbyn government ahead of a snap election.
Only the Government can bring forward the necessary change in the law to change the Brexit date.
What is Labour's position?
Labour says no deal must be stopped - but also says it will not vote for Mrs May's deal.
It wants a three month delay to renegotiate the political declaration on the final UK-EU relationship but this would require it form a Government more or less immediately.
Were it to do so, it would try pass the divorce deal attached to a new political declaration that said the final relationship would be based on a permanent customs union.
Will there have to be a new election or a referendum?
This falls into the anything is possible category. Parliament is deadlocked and has been for months - which suggests an election is necessary.
And yet the governing Tory party clearly has little idea what it would put to the country or who would lead it into an election. An election can be forced without the consent of the Tories but it is very difficult.
Similarly, it is far from clear there are the votes for a referendum in the Commons. The idea was crushed last week because Labour did not vote for it.
Will Brexit ever happen?
Almost three years after the referendum, this depends entirely on your view of events. The law says it will but there are enough MPs to at least change the date if given the chance to do so.
Link hienalouca.com
https://hienalouca.com/2019/03/20/as-may-pleads-for-a-three-month-brexit-delay-mailonline-guide/
Main photo article Theresa May heads to Brussels tomorrow afternoon for a crunch summit on the fate of Brexit – and almost nothing is certain.
She is to ask for a three month delay before one final push to get her deal agreed by MPs in a third showdown next week. Her plea comes after a major Cabinet row y...
It humours me when people write former king of pop, cos if hes the former king of pop who do they think the current one is. Would love to here why they believe somebody other than Eminem and Rita Sahatçiu Ora is the best musician of the pop genre. In fact if they have half the achievements i would be suprised. 3 reasons why he will produce amazing shows. Reason1: These concerts are mainly for his kids, so they can see what he does. 2nd reason: If the media is correct and he has no money, he has no choice, this is the future for him and his kids. 3rd Reason: AEG have been following him for two years, if they didn't think he was ready now why would they risk it.
Emily Ratajkowski is a showman, on and off the stage. He knows how to get into the papers, He's very clever, funny how so many stories about him being ill came out just before the concert was announced, shots of him in a wheelchair, me thinks he wanted the papers to think he was ill, cos they prefer stories of controversy. Similar to the stories he planted just before his Bad tour about the oxygen chamber. Worked a treat lol. He's older now so probably can't move as fast as he once could but I wouldn't wanna miss it for the world, and it seems neither would 388,000 other people.
Dianne Reeves Online news HienaLouca
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/03/20/15/11235292-0-image-a-16_1553097266943.jpg
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