«Breaking News» How long will Brexit be delayed, can it be cancelled?

Theresa May finally gave up on Brexit happening on time tonight after MPs backed her plan to seek delay.

With just 15 days until Britain was supposed to leave the European Union postponement appears to be almost inevitable.

But the Prime Minister now faces two immediate new battles that will be played out over the next seven days - one in Westminster and then another in Brussels.

How they go will determine whether Britain can still Brexit within weeks or will be forced to stay an EU member for months, years - or maybe even for good.

Theresa May finally gave up on Brexit happening on time tonight after MPs backed her plan to seek delay  

Mrs May's first task is to have a third and possibly final attempt at getting her deal agreed by MPs.

The stage is set for a new 'meaningful vote' on the plan - probably on Tuesday or Wednesday, just a week after it was crushed a second time.

The Prime Minister must find 75 votes to over turn this week's 149 drubbing. Talks are ongoing with her DUP allies, who have 10 MPs, while Brexit hardliners - amounting about 68 MPs - show signs of splitting.

If Mrs May can pull off an unlikely victory, she will go to Brussels to seek a delay of up to three months to get the deal into law.

If she fails, the Prime Minister will still have to appear at the EU headquarters next Thursday afternoon - but has already accepted she will be asking for a much longer delay. 

Failure will make the mission to Brussels a much harder task. The EU has demanded a clear outline of what delay is for and assurances Mrs May can deliver on what she says.

Worse still, all 27 EU states must agree unanimously on the terms of any delay - and there are clear splits inside the bloc on what could and should be agreed.

Mrs May will be excluded from the decision process as Britain does not get a vote on Brexit matters.

The EU is likely to offer an extension of some kind as few in Brussels want a No Deal on March 29 but the Government is likely to have to accept conditions.

This is likely to include continuing to pay £10billion a year in membership fees and taking part in European Parliament elections on May 22.

If she secures a delay Mrs May will then need to pilot Britain to a new form of Brexit - knowing a delay of years gives time for her enemies to circle and oust her. 

A two year delay would give time for a General Election and even a referendum before the Government even tried to negotiate a new form of Brexit in time for whatever the new deadline is.  

Could Brexit be stopped? 

Mrs May has warned this is a possibility. While she will not revoke Article 50 herself, she has warned political chaos could see the Government replaced by Jeremy Corbyn or another pro-Remain administration.

If Article 50 is not revoked or extended on March 29, and UK law changed accordingly, Britain will leave the EU without a deal, despite the votes this week to block it.

Could there be a third meaningful vote? 

Downing Street says yes but has not scheduled it. In practice, the new vote will be held on Tuesday or Wednesday next week Mrs May attends the EU Council on Thursday.

The EU will not negotiate further on the deal so it would seem it is likely to be a rerun rather than a different deal to that which failed on Tuesday.

But the events of this week could see Brexiteers swing in behind Mrs May's deal, little more than a week after overwhelmingly rejecting it. 

That will be what Mrs May will be hoping in any case. 

So it's a clear choice between June 30 or a much longer deal? 

Broadly. If MPs endorse the deal next week, the PM can negotiate the short term extension. If they don't it will be a longer delay - but with string attached the Commons will have to endorse.  

Will there be a second referendum?   

MPs voted against a second referendum by 334 to 85 today - the first time a direct vote has been called.

But the vote was not binding and it is unlikely the question has been answered forever. If there is a long delay to Brexit, new referendum campaigners will move again.

Organising a referendum will take about a year - to pass the laws, agree the question, appoint campaigns and have the actual battle. 

Michel Barnier is among senior EU figures who have warned that Britain will only get an extension if it has a clear idea of what it would be used for

What will the EU tell Mrs May? 

EU leaders have already spelled out that an extension will not be granted just because British politics is bitterly divided.

They want to see clear reasoning for extending Article 50. If she arrives with a deal that has been agreed between now and then it seems likely that a shorter extension could be agreed.

If MPs still have not agreed a deal, they will want to see evidence that another plan is in place, like a second refrendum or a general election. But all of the EU's 27 other nations have to agree. 

Are there any other reasons they could refuse an extension? 

The EU has hinted at a two year delay, although some prominent figures have pushed for a short delay.

Another key date is May 23. Mrs May's own motion points out that any extension beyond June 30 'would require the UK to hold European Parliament elections' due to take place on that day.

This would raise the prospect of Brexiteer MEPs like Nigel Farage running for office again.   

European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said that Brexit should be completed before the European elections which take place between May 23 and 26.

'If the UK has not left the EU by then, it will be legally required to hold these elections,' he said.

What happens if the EU27 do not agree to a delay to Brexit?

A refusal to get an extension would most likely be because there was no deal in place and no alternative prospect. 

Despite last night's votes, it could see the UK leave without a deal on March 29 or try to force through a new deal in a matter of days.

Link hienalouca.com

https://hienalouca.com/2019/03/15/how-long-will-brexit-be-delayed-can-it-be-cancelled/
Main photo article Theresa May finally gave up on Brexit happening on time tonight after MPs backed her plan to seek delay.
With just 15 days until Britain was supposed to leave the European Union postponement appears to be almost inevitable.
But the Prime Minister now faces two immediate new battles that will be...

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Dianne Reeves Online news HienaLouca





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