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Earth cooled slightly last year - but it still was the fourth warmest on record, a new analysis shows.

With the partial U.S. government shutdown, federal agency calculations for last year's temperatures are delayed. 

But independent scientists at Berkeley Earth calculate that last year's average temperature was 58.93 degrees (14.96 degrees Celsius), 1.39 degrees (0.77 degrees Celsius) warmer than the average from 1951 to 1980 and about 2.09 degrees (1.16 degrees Celsius) warmer than pre-industrial times.

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The map shows the degree to which local temperatures in 2018 have increased relative to the average temperature in 1951-1980. While Earth was a tad cooler last year than the last couple of years, it still was the fourth warmest on record, a new analysis shows.

WHAT CAUSED THE EARTH TO COOL? 

In addition to long-term warming, individual years are also affected by variations in weather, the researchers said.

Both 2015 and 2016 were warmed by an extreme El Niño event that peaked in Nov/Dec of 2015 and was reported by NOAA as essentially tied for the strongest El Niño ever observed. 

That exceptional El Niño boosted global mean temperatures in 2015 and 2016. 

By contrast, 2018 began with a weak-to-moderate La Niña event. 

Such conditions would be expected to have somewhat reduced the global mean temperature in 2018. 

Internal variability, such as El Niño and La Niña, generate year-to-year variations in temperature that occur in addition to the long-term warming trend.

 

'Global mean temperature in 2018 was colder than 2015, 2016, and 2017, but warmer than every previously observed year prior to 2015,' the researchers said.

'Consequently, 2016 remains the warmest year in the period of historical observations. 

'The slight decline in 2018 is likely to reflect short-term natural variability, but the overall pattern remains consistent with a long-term trend towards global warming.' 

It's likely other temperature measuring groups will agree on 2018's ranking since they had it at fourth hottest through November, said Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. 

The Japanese Meteorological Agency has already calculated it at fourth. 

Hausfather said it would be foolish to call last year's slight dip a cooling trend.

'The long term is stunningly clear,' he said.

Record-keeping started in 1850.

Only 2016, 2017 and 2015 were warmer than last year, with only small differences among them.  

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'Though 2018 only ranks fourth overall, 2015 through 2018 still stand out as a period of significant warmth well above all previous years since 1850,' the researchers added.

'This reflects the long-term trend towards global warming. 

'Though 2018 is slightly cooler than the immediately preceding years, its temperature remains consistent with the long-term warming trend.'

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist, who wasn't part of the Berkeley Earth team, said the fact that nearly every year recently is in the top five or top 10 hottest years is 'clear evidence of human-caused warming on this planet.'

Last year, 29 countries, including much of Central Europe, and Antarctica had record hot years, Hausfather said.

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https://hienalouca.com/2019/01/25/high-heat-but-no-record-2018-was-4th-warmest-year-on/
Main photo article Earth cooled slightly last year – but it still was the fourth warmest on record, a new analysis shows.
With the partial U.S. government shutdown, federal agency calculations for last year’s temperatures are delayed. 
But independent scientists at Berkeley Earth calculate that last ...

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