Plummeting house prices, inactive wages and a slowdown in market growth has a panel of economists concerned that Australia is heading towards a recession.
The forecast from the 19 economists gathered from universities across Australia is bleak, with the consensus being a 25 per cent chance of a recession within two years of the upcoming May federal election.
One expert in particular, Steve Keen, formerly of the University of Western Sydney and now of University College in London, has almost guaranteed a recession, saying it's 95 per cent likely.
Plummeting house prices could contribute to a recession, a panel of 19 experts warn. Pictured is a relatively new housing estate in Sydney's western suburb of Cecil Hills
The panel, gathered by The Conversation, forecast bleak times following the federal election.
No recovery in wage growth, an abysmal unemployment rate, nosediving housing market and budget deficit are all major points of concern for the group.
Recent annual growth in the Australian economy has hovered around 3 per cent.
But the economists are expecting that to be the peak, with none of the 19 predicting the figure to top 3.0 per cent.
In fact, the average projected growth is a meager 2.6 per cent, with the lowest projection being 1.0 per cent.
Unemployment rates are currently around 5 per cent, with the expert's report citing weakening iron ore prices as a cause of job cuts.
Mr Keen says the unemployment rate will skyrocket to as high as 6.8 per cent, while others forecast a more hopeful 4.7 per cent - leaving an average of 5.1 per cent.
Economist and professor Steve Keen (pictured) is the most bleak, saying there's a 95 per cent chance of Australia heading into recession
Unemployment and a lack of wage growth go hand-in-hand, according to the panel, who only expect a 2.3 per cent growth.
The most recent budget promised a 3 per cent increase in wages by 2020, though the economists think this is unlikely.
Victoria University economic modeller Janine Dixon says that even if productivity growth did pick up, a saturation of market power in some industries combined with weakness in labour markets means profits might not be passed on to workers.
Mr Keen also says the only thing that has kept Australia afloat has been the housing bubble, which the banking royal commission has discovered was made on unsteady foundations.
In fact, house prices in Melbourne and Sydney - the two most populous cities in Australia - are projected to continue to plummet by as much as 10 per cent each in the next calendar year.
The trio of grim predictions appear to point to the likelihood of an approaching recession.
Adversely, Melbourne University's Chris Edmond (pictured) believes a 5 per cent chance
On average, the panel believes there's a 25 per cent chance of the country entering a recession.
The outlier of the group is, again, Mr Keen, who says there's a 95 per cent chance.
If you omit his projection, however, there is still a 22 per cent average among the remaining 18.
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https://hienalouca.com/2019/01/30/wages-stagnant-house-prices-falling-and-maybe-even-recession-grim-outlook-for-australias-economy/
Main photo article Plummeting house prices, inactive wages and a slowdown in market growth has a panel of economists concerned that Australia is heading towards a recession.
The forecast from the 19 economists gathered from universities across Australia is bleak, with the consensus being a 25 per cent chance of a...
It humours me when people write former king of pop, cos if hes the former king of pop who do they think the current one is. Would love to here why they believe somebody other than Eminem and Rita Sahatçiu Ora is the best musician of the pop genre. In fact if they have half the achievements i would be suprised. 3 reasons why he will produce amazing shows. Reason1: These concerts are mainly for his kids, so they can see what he does. 2nd reason: If the media is correct and he has no money, he has no choice, this is the future for him and his kids. 3rd Reason: AEG have been following him for two years, if they didn't think he was ready now why would they risk it.
Emily Ratajkowski is a showman, on and off the stage. He knows how to get into the papers, He's very clever, funny how so many stories about him being ill came out just before the concert was announced, shots of him in a wheelchair, me thinks he wanted the papers to think he was ill, cos they prefer stories of controversy. Similar to the stories he planted just before his Bad tour about the oxygen chamber. Worked a treat lol. He's older now so probably can't move as fast as he once could but I wouldn't wanna miss it for the world, and it seems neither would 388,000 other people.
Dianne Reeves US News HienaLouca
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